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29.09.2007

Greenback Mired near Lows

The dollar sold off across the board to end the week at fresh record lows against the euro at 1.4277 and multi-week lows versus the sterling near 2.0450. Fundamentally, little has changed in the US economic and interest rate outlook but with sentiment biased toward further Fed easing, traders have been given the green light to dump dollars. The economy remains in a precarious state with the housing market yet to reach bottom and burgeoning fears of slipping into recession.

While the barrage of economic data released this morning was mixed, it had little impact in the foreign exchange market. Inflation reports showed the PCE price index softer than expected, with the headline reading at 1.8% y/y and down 0.1% m/m. The core reading edged up by 0.1% m/m, albeit weaker than anticipated while the annualized figure fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. August personal consumption rose by 0.6%, up from 0.3% while personal income drifted to 0.3% from 0.5%. The September NAPM index tumbled to its lowest level since November 2001, falling to 437.6 versus 445.0 from August. However, the Chicago PMI reading exceeded consensus estimates for a decline to 53.3, instead rising to 54.2 from 53.4 a month earlier. The University of Michigan sentiment survey unexpectedly fell to 97.9, coming short of forecasts for 99.0 and down from 98.4 from August. The sentiment survey echoes the Conference Board??™s dismal consumer confidence survey from earlier this week and is indicative of deteriorating economic fundamentals and recent market volatility.

We continue to look for more dollar weakness in the near-term. Next week??™s US economic reports will provide additional clues on the state of the economy. The data consist of September manufacturing ISM, pending home sales, services ISM, durable goods orders, factory orders, and the September jobs report. Recall last month, the greenback sold off sharply following an unexpectedly dismal non-farm payrolls number, which declined by 4k. The September NF payrolls reading are seen posting a dramatic improvement to 94k.

Traders will also focus closely on central bank policy decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The sterling came under pressure in the New York morning amid rumors circulating trading desks that the BoE would come in with a surprise rate cut. The currency quickly recouped its losses against the yen and the dollar, but the prospect of a BoE rate cut will remain fresh on traders??™ minds.

Also worth noting, St Louis Fed President Poole said that the 50-basis point Fed rate cut was justified in order to help markets to recover. However, he said it is a mistake for markets to bet on further easing and policy would be determined from meeting to meeting. Poole also added that inflation expectations are firm, but the core PCE figures released today were moving in the right direction.

Consumer Spending Advanced in August, Core Inflation Is Within "Comfort Zone"

Inflation adjusted consumer spending rose 0.6% in August following a 0.3% gain in July. The strength was in durable goods purchases (+2.8% vs. -0.3% in July) and services (+0.6% vs. +0.3% in July). Spending on non-durables was virtually steady in August. The July-August average for consumer expenditures points to a third quarter increase that is noticeably higher than the 1.4% reading of the second quarter. However, soft numbers for September could alter this projection.

Personal income increased 0.3% in August after a 0.5% gain in July, reflecting only a 0.2% increase in wages and salaries. Personal saving as a percent of disposable income was 0.7%. In the first eight months of the year, personal saving is running at an average of 0.8%, compared with a 0.5% and 0.4% readings in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

The personal consumption expenditure price index fell 0.1% in August due to lower energy prices. The core personal consumption expenditure price index excluding food and energy rose only 0.1% in August, putting the year-to-year increase at 1.76% compared with gains of 1.92% and 1.91% in June and July, respectively. The cycle peak appears to be a 2.46% increase in February 2007. This places core inflation well within the Fed??™s comfort zone of below 2.0% year-to-year increase. This is significant because it gives the FOMC flexibility to place a greater emphasis on weakening economic conditions and reduce the concern about inflation.

Residential Construction Remains Weak in August
Total construction spending rose 0.2% in August, following two consecutive monthly declines. The 2.3% jump in private sector non-residential construction spending and 1.2% increase in public construction outlays more than offset the 1.5% decline in private residential construction spending. The July-August average of residential construction spending points to a sharper drop in residential construction spending (proxy for residential investment expenditures in GDP accounts) during the third quarter compared with the second quarter decline, which implies that residential investment expenditures are most likely to make a larger negative contribution to real GDP in the third quarter vs. the second quarter. At the same time, the strength in private non-residential construction expenditures suggests a positive contribution to GDP in the third quarter.

20.09.2007

Iran Leader Denied Bid to Visit Ground Zero

A remark by Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly that the Police Department was considering a request by Iran that its president visit ground zero set off complaints yesterday before the department corrected itself.

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Go to City Room » Late in the day, it said, the request had already been turned down.

Iran asked this month that its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, be permitted to visit ground zero when he attends the opening of the United Nations General Assembly next week.

Paul Browne, the chief spokesman for Commissioner Kelly, said the request — that Mr. Ahmadinejad be allowed to lay a wreath at the former site of the World Trade Center — had been made by Iranian officials earlier this month in a meeting that was also attended by officials of the United States Secret Service and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Mr. Browne said the request was rejected because the Iranians wanted Mr. Ahmadinejad to visit the area of ground zero where construction is under way, but he said that any additional request that he appear near the site of the 9/11 terrorist attack would also be denied out of concerns about security. Although relatives of the victims were allowed to visit the site briefly on the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, members of the public are not allowed into the area.

Mr. Browne’s comments came late yesterday in the form of a clarification of remarks made earlier in the day by Mr. Kelly, who said that a ground zero visit by Mr. Ahmadinejad, a strident critic of the United States and an object of scorn for the Bush administration, was under consideration.

Speaking to reporters at Police Headquarters, Mr. Kelly said that a request had been made by Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations, and “we are talking to them right now.” He said that Mr. Ahmadinejad would not be allowed into the section of ground zero where construction is taking place, but that a visit nearby might be allowed.

“It is something we are prepared to handle if in fact it does happen,” he said.

Mr. Browne said later that Commissioner Kelly had been reviewing several security questions involving many heads of state who will be attending the General Assembly session and that he misspoke when asked about the Iranian leader’s visit.

Mr. Ahmadinejad, elected in 2005, has clashed with the Bush administration over his country’s nuclear program and human rights record, and has faced international criticism for calling the Holocaust a “myth.”

He is expected to arrive in New York on Sunday, address the United Nations on Monday, and leave the city on Wednesday morning, Mr. Kelly said. Mr. Ahmadinejad is also scheduled to speak at Columbia University on Monday. Lee C. Bollinger, the president of Columbia, said yesterday that Mr. Ahmadinejad would speak at a World Leaders Forum, but that strict conditions had been set.

The Iranian president has visited Manhattan before, and been greeted by protest.

A year ago, after he was invited to address the same Columbia forum he is scheduled to attend on Monday, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s invitation was withdrawn.

The possibility of a visit to ground zero, as suggested by Mr. Kelly yesterday, provoked a cool response from the White House.

“This is a matter for the City of New York, but ground zero would be an odd place for the president of a country that is a state sponsor of terror to visit,” said Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman.

Before the department’s clarification, the presidential candidates condemned the prospect of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s visiting ground zero.

“It is unacceptable,” said Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. “Under no circumstances,” said Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. “Ahmadinejad’s shockingly audacious request should be met with a vehement no,” said the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney.

In blow to Democrats, Senate kills anti-war bill !

WASHINGTON (AFP) — President George W. Bush's administration Wednesday thwarted the latest bid by Democrats to derail its Iraq strategy, as the Senate blocked a bid to limit the numbers of troops ready for deployment.

After wavering Republican Senators came under fierce political pressure, the bill garnered 56 votes in the 100-member chamber, but in a stinging defeat for Democrats, fell four votes short of the required 60-vote supermajority.

The measure, framed by Democratic Senator James Webb, and co-sponsored by Republican war critic Senator Chuck Hagel, would have mandated rest periods for troops equal to the length of time they spent on combat tours.

Its failure was the latest bitter disappointment for Democrats who grabbed control of Congress last year, but have repeatedly failed to change the course of US strategy in the unpopular war.

Hagel had argued in a day of impassioned debate that US troops were being stretched beyond endurance, and facing rising rates of stress, divorce and personal hardship by repeated combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"We cannot continue to look at war and the people who fight and die in wars as abstractions, as pawns, as objects," said Hagel.

"The humanity of this is lost.

But critics branded the bill a "back-door" attempt to enforce a drawdown of US troops from Iraq. Supporters did not dispute the fact it would limit troop levels, but said it was vital to ease the strain on the US military.

Though Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had warned he would ask Bush to veto the measure had it passed, the bill was seen as the Democrats best shot this year of challenging Bush's control of the war.

Republicans celebrated the defeat of the bill, which they said would have amounted to a legislated surrender in Iraq, a week after Bush declared his troop surge strategy a success.

Senator and 2008 presidential candidate John McCain branded the bill "dangerous," adding it would have "the effect of changing policy on the war."

Republican Senator Jim Bunning issued an outspoken attack on the bill.

"I will not support this slow bleed strategy in Iraq, it ties the hands of our commanders," he said.

Republican Senator John Warner, an expert on the military, who has expressed disquiet about war strategy, had considered voting for the measure, but was swayed by top military brass in a meeting on Wednesday.

He said the provision would interfere with Bush's gradual troop redeployment plan from Iraq, to 'pre-surge' levels of around 130,000 by mid-2008, and would limit specialist troops available in Iraq.

"I regretfully say I have been convinced by those in professional uniform -- they cannot do it," said Warner.

Another Republican Senator Arlen Specter, who had expressed interest in the bill, also changed his mind of meeting senior military officers.

Webb said he had been hopeful that the bill would get the required 60 votes, but concluded his quest was derailed by a fierce lobbying operation organized by the White House.

"When it became possible, and likely that we would get to 60 votes, the White House really revved up the engines on this," he told reporters after the vote.

The bill's 56-vote tally was exactly the same as the number a similar version garnered in June, when it last came up for the vote, showing little progress by Democrats in thwarting Bush's war strategy.

Faced with apparently solid Republican backing for Bush on the war in the Senate, Democrats are now expected to make several symbolic -- but almost certain to fail -- attempts to establish troop withdrawal timetables.

By the Democratic script, September was supposed to have been the month, when constant pressure on wavering Republican senators broke the back of Bush's support for the war in Congress.

But a public relations campaign by the White House, and testimony by war commander General David Petraeus and US ambassador to Baghdad Ryan Crocker now seems to have been decisive.

12.09.2007

Shinzo Abe's Year in Power

Sept. 12, 2007: Abe announces he will resign as Japanese prime minister.

Sept. 9, 2007: Abe says he is ready to resign if Parliament fails to extend a mission to refuel U.S.-led coalition warships in the Indian Ocean.

Sept. 5, 2007: Environment Minister Ichiro Kamoshita and his political-fund-management group come under fire over an ¥8 million ($69,000) discrepancy in records of loans from the lawmaker to the group declared in fund reports in the 1990s. Kamoshita denies any ill intent, and Abe and other government officials rally to his defense.

Sept. 3, 2007: Agriculture minister Takehiko Endo resigns only a week after his appointment because of a scandal involving misuse of farm subsidies.

Aug. 27, 2007: Abe starts his campaign to bounce back from an election defeat by selecting older, more experienced cabinet ministers, many of whom served in the administration of Junichiro Koizumi, Abe's predecessor.

Aug. 1, 2007: Agriculture minister Norihiko Akagi steps down to take responsibility for a major electoral defeat for the ruling party. Akagi is suspected of reporting $730,000 in office expenses over the past decade for a political office that was registered at his parents' address and was defunct. Akagi has denied any wrongdoing.

July 29, 2007: Just 10 months after Abe takes office, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party loses its majority in the Upper House. Despite the electoral defeat, Abe says he would remain in office.

July 3, 2007: Japan's defense minister, Fumio Kyuma, resigns after he offended many Japanese with remarks about the 1945 U.S. atom-bomb attacks. Kyuma had said in a speech that the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which together killed more than 200,000 people, were inevitable.

May 28, 2007: Agriculture Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka hangs himself just hours before he is to face questioning over alleged bookkeeping fraud.

March 26, 2007: Abe, under fire for denying that Japan forced women to work as sex slaves during World War II, offers an apology but refuses to clearly acknowledge Japan's responsibility for running the frontline brothels.

Jan. 9, 2007: Japan's conservative government upgrades the Defense Agency to a full ministry for the first time since World War II as part of Abe's push to raise the military's profile.

Dec. 27, 2006: Minister for administrative reforms Genichiro Sata resigns after admitting that a political support group had engaged in fraudulent accounting. Abe chooses Yoshimi Watanabe, a cabinet vice-minister, to replace Sata.

Dec. 21, 2006: The head the government's tax panel, Masaaki Homma, resigns amid an outcry over his use of a plush government apartment to house his mistress.

Sept 26, 2006: Shinzo Abe, the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is elected prime minister of Japan. He announces a cabinet lineup that indicates he will follow many of the policies of his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi.

Philippine ex-president gets life sentence

MANILA, Philippines -- Deposed Philippine President Joseph Estrada, who once pulled off the biggest election victory in Philippine history, has been sentenced to life in prison on charges he took bribes and kickbacks in office.

Estrada was convicted of plunder -- a capital offence -- though the death penalty was recently abolished.

He was acquitted of perjury for allegedly falsely declaring his assets.

It was unclear when he might be eligible for parole.

He was given credit for the time he has spent in detention.

Riot police and troops kept hundreds of flag-waving Estrada backers several blocks from the Sandiganbayan, the anti-graft court in Manila that the former action film star inaugurated before he was ousted in January 2001 by the country's second people power revolt.

Security also was very tight around the presidential palace as President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo worried about a repeat of violent protests that followed Estrada's arrest in April 2001.

Estrada's son, Senator Jinggoy Estrada, and lawyer Eduardo Serapio were acquitted of all charges.

Estrada said before the verdict he would appeal a conviction but did not immediately tell the court he would do so.